How accurately do political decision-makers gauge public support for climate policy measures? In an online experiment involving 100 sitting members of the UK Parliament, the researchers compared the MPs’ assessments of four climate policy proposals with representative public opinion polls. On average, MPs underestimated public support by 11 percentage points – even when the measures involved personal financial or practical costs. At the same time, they overestimated the differences between various voter groups. Furthermore, a lower perceived level of public support was associated with a lower willingness to advocate for a price-based climate protection measure. However, providing actual survey data could only correct these misjudgements to a limited extent and with uncertain results.
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